Apr 13, 2020
In this episode, infectious disease and pandemic preparedness expert, Amesh Adalja, M.D., puts the current pandemic into context against previous coronaviruses as well as past influenza pandemics. Amesh also provides his interpretation of the evolving metrics which have contributed to big variations in modeling predictions, whether this will be a seasonally recurring virus, and perhaps most importantly—how we can be better prepared for the inevitable future novel virus. Finally, Amesh explains where he sees positive trends which give him reasons for optimism.
We discuss:
- Amesh’s background in infectious
disease [2:40];
- When did the virus actually reach
the US? And when did Amesh realize it would pose a real threat to
the US? [4:00];
- Comparing and contrasting
COVID-19 to previous pandemics like the Asian flu of 1958 and the
Spanish flu of 1918 [8:00];
- Will COVID-19 be a recurring
seasonal virus every year? [14:00];
- Will a future vaccine be specific
to this COVID-19 or will it also cover previous coronaviruses as
well? [15:15];
- What does Amesh think might be
the true case fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2?
[16:15];
- Why did early models over predict
infections and deaths by order of millions?
[18:30];
- Role of government—How does Amesh
view the role of local versus central government in dealing with a
future pandemic? [21:50];
- What went wrong with testing and
how could we have utilized it more effectively?
[25:15];
- Future pandemic preparedness—why
Amesh is cautiously optimistic [27:30];
- Should there be different
policies and restrictions for places like New York City compared to
less populated and less affected places across the US?
[30:15];
- Why mass gatherings might be
disproportionately driving the spread of the virus
[32:30];
- Learning from HKU1, a
lesser-known novel coronavirus from 2005
[34:00];
- Thoughts on Sweden’s herd
immunity approach [36:10];
- The efficacy of masks being worn
in public and what role they will play as restrictions are slowly
lifted [37:20];
- What are some positive trends and
signs of optimism? [39:15]; and
- More.
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